About two diagnistic strategies of mathematical models in economics based on the statistical distribution analysis of residal errors
Alcide De Gasperi University of Euroregional Economy in Józefów Poland, Warsaw
Data publikacji: 30-09-2017
JoMS 2017;34(3):269-276
Two diagnostic methods of mathematical models in economic studies that are based on the statistical analysis of residual errors O-S (Observation-Calculation) are considered in the article. The first method is recommended for sample sizes n within 30 < n < 500, using the x-test to verify the normality of the O-C values. The second method is recommended for the diagnosis of O-C errors with the volume n > 500. The famous Cambridge professor H. Jeffreys made the conclusion that such samples usually follow the Pearson distribution of type VII, which has a positive kurtosis. The mathematical model for volumes of O-C values n > 500 is considered adequate if the kurtosis for O-C is in the limits of 6,0-1,2 with insignificant asymmetries. The model is acceptable if the kurtosis for O-C is in the limits of 1,2-0,0. The model is considered inadequate (unacceptable) if the errors of O-C have a significant negative kurtosis or significant asymmetry.
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