Objectives:
The aim of the article is to determine the impact of contemporary demographic processes—particularly low fertility rates, rapid population ageing, and deteriorating health conditions—on the long-term mobilization potential of the state. The author hypothesizes that demographic factors may significantly limit the state’s ability to conduct effective national defense and respond to crises over the coming decades.

Material and methods:
The study adopts an integrated methodological approach, combining theoretical methods (analysis, synthesis, abstraction) with prognostic methods based on quantitative data. Within the framework of prognostic analysis, the scenario technique was applied, enabling the development of alternative future pathways based on logical assumptions about key demographic variables. Three scenarios were developed—optimistic, moderate, and pessimistic—taking into account variations in fertility rates (TFR), population health status, and the pace of societal ageing.

Results:
Forecasts indicate that under the pessimistic scenario, the state's mobilization potential could decline by as much as 75% over the next four decades, substantially weakening its capacity for crisis response and national defense.

Conclusions:
The findings underscore the necessity of systematically incorporating demographic analysis into strategic planning and of formulating public policies aimed at mitigating the decline of human resources essential for national security. The article fills a research gap in the quantitative assessment of demographic trends affecting state mobilization capabilities.